Insights from the report E-barometern Q2 2026 – The new playing field for retail
Swedish e-commerce appears to have now left behind the protracted recovery phase following several years of inflation and uncertainty. With 8% growth in the second quarter of 2026 – during which all sectors tracked by the E-barometer showed growth – we are seeing a positive trend.
New behaviours, digital tools, and AI are transforming how we shop, compare products, and search for information. As physical and digital retail converge, the customer interaction is becoming increasingly important. The rules of the game are changing regarding our preferences for shopping, payment, returns, and delivery.
New customs regulations having an impact
An increasing number of consumers have been shopping from international e-retailers; however, cross-border shopping involving small parcels dropped by approximately 70% in July when new customs regulations came into effect. Long-term trends remain to be seen, depending on how low-cost retailers adapt their delivery models to the new legislation. For Swedish e-retailers, this presents a unique opportunity to regain market share by offering faster delivery, local service, and greater peace of mind.
Factors shaping the next chapter of e-commerce
New technologies and the global landscape can rapidly alter the conditions for the evolution of e-commerce. The report E-barometern, which is published by PostNord in collaboration with HUI, highlights some of the factors that could drive this development forward, as well as those that might slow it down.
- Discretionary spending and confidence in the future – The global landscape, inflation, and household purchasing power.
- Shifts in e-commerce – E-commerce market share, cross-border trade, and the second-hand market.
- Technological development – AI applications in the retail sector.
Increased purchasing power, reduced foreign competition from low-cost operators, and a wider product range from Swedish online retailers create opportunities for e-commerce to grow significantly faster than the retail sector—marking a new phase of growth in a future scenario presented by the E-barometer. In an alternative scenario featuring a weaker economic climate, e-commerce is still expected to outperform physical retail.
Guidance during the customer journey
Although various AI services are beginning to gain ground for inspiration, product comparisons, and purchase assistance, more traditional search methods remain widely used. There is a significant need for guidance, with nine out of ten consumers stating that they use some form of support to select the right product in an online store. Half of them identify customer reviews as the most important aid in making the right choice, seeking feedback both on the retailer’s own website and via search engines. Digital services are also becoming a natural part of the in-store experience, enabling customers to check stock levels, compare prices, or navigate various product options. This makes it increasingly important to ensure a cohesive offering throughout the entire customer journey.
The right options matter more than the sheer number of choices
It remains important for consumers to recognize the payment provider and have the freedom to choose between different options. However, an excessive number of payment methods—or unfamiliar ones—can be perceived as a hindrance. Different consumers prefer different payment options and ideally want their favourite method available at checkout. The key lies in determining what to offer the target audience and how to present those options. Verification is cited as a crucial factor for a sense of security, even though it adds an extra step to the checkout process; in this context, that step is viewed positively.
A gap persists between how consumers want their parcels delivered and how they are actually delivered. Nearly one in five consumers who had their most recent parcel delivered to a pickup point would have preferred a different delivery method had they been given the choice. Parcel lockers are the only delivery method to show steady year-on-year growth since tracking began in the report E-barometern in 2020.
Four steps to enhanced data capabilities and profitable growth
Google presents a four-step plan to build a robust data structure that maximizes the impact of AI, strengthens measurement capabilities, and paves the way for profitable growth.
- Connect your data sources and collect first-party data securely and in a privacy-conscious manner.
- Ensure high data quality using relevant customer, transaction, and behavioural signals.
- Leverage the data to let AI optimize audiences, bidding, and channel selection.
- Measure business impact using attribution, controlled tests, and Marketing Mix Modelling.
Focus on revenue, profit, and actual incremental sales rather than just clicks. Success requires close collaboration between marketing and IT, driven by shared business goals. A well-conceived data strategy unlocks the full potential of AI and makes the value of marketing clearer.
